At BettingPros, we’ve tracked NFL sports betting accuracy since 2018, and you can read about our methodology here. Once experts submit their picks before each game, our webpage displays their selections. We use those to calculate Win % and Units Won.

We believe that Win % tells us the most for picks made against the spread and over/under, as those lines are often close to even. In contrast, Units Won tells us the most for moneyline bets, as those lines range significantly in value.

Here are the most accurate experts from 2020.

View the full 2020 NFL accuracy leaderboard >>

Walter Cherepinsky moved from No. 19 in 2019 to No. 1 in 2020 with the top Win % by a one-point margin. He ranked first among experts in Units Won, too. If you want to read more from him, head over to his website, WalterFootball.

FantasyTeamAdvice’s KJ finished No. 2 in against the spread accuracy after finishing No. 37 last year. Interestingly, he improved his Win % by just two percentage points. Likewise, No. 5 Greg Smith of TwoQBs even had a worse Win % than he did last year (56%), yet he finished higher than he did in 2019 (No. 26).

So what happened? Well, we saw significant regression in Win % among experts last season. Last year’s No. 1 finisher, Chet Gresham, had a Win % of 66%. That marks a nine-point drop-off at first place from this year to last. None of our top-10 finishers would’ve finished top-10 in last year’s leaderboard.

We can’t blame our experts, though. Uncertainty dominated the 2020 season — numerous games got postponed while teams had to make late adjustments due to COVID-19. Let’s hope that next year is a bit less chaotic!

Wow. Jody Smith of FantasyData not only finished No. 1 in game totals betting, but he also did so by a six-point margin! Smith didn’t participate in last year’s contest, but last year’s winner, Matt MacCoy, won with a Win % of 60% that year. Smith now owns the best NFL game total Win % in BettingPros history.

No one else surpassed the 60% mark, but No. 2 Jared Beams of DGSN and No. 3 Bart Wheeler of HTFF came the closest. They both finished with more units won than Smith, too. Unlike Smith, both experts submitted picks for last year’s contest. Beams moved up from No. 37 after improving his Win % by nine points, while Wheeler moved up from No. 4 after improving his Win % by two points.

Impressively, No. 9 Justin Dodds led all experts in Units Won (39.21) despite his lower Win %, and No. 2 Jared Beams finished right behind him.

Three bettors finished as top-10 experts both against the spread and over/under: Jody Smith, Jared Smola, and Greg Smith. That’s an incredibly impressive accomplishment, and you should follow those three experts closely next season.

FantasyTeamAdvice’s KJ illustrates perfectly why Win % matters less than Units Won in moneyline betting. Although he only hit one-third of the time, taking each one of KJ’s bets would’ve won you a whopping 39.67 units, far and away the most this season. Sure, that number may not be as impressive as the number posted by Win My Fantasy League’s Raju Byfield last season (70.63), but it’s an accomplishment nonetheless. Last season, KJ finished No. 5 with a 39% Win % and 37.86 units won.

Only one other expert produced more than 30 Units Won: Tal Malachovsky of The Fantasy Scout. His impressive Units Won can be credited to both accuracy and the sheer total of games he picked, as he had more wins than KJ had selections. In 2019, Malachovsky finished No. 16 with -0.79 Units Won.

Although he didn’t lead in any category, Greg Smith was the only expert to finish in the top-10 of each. In all, he totaled 33.17 Units Won.

Vishaal Gupta of Important Nonsense led all experts in Win %. His picks should be good to follow next year for those in survivor pools, although you may not win a ton of units betting on safe lines.

Sign up at FOX Bet and get $20 free cash plus up to $100 more on deposit >>

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Articles