The Tennessee Titans are set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend in what should be a scintillating AFC Championship game. The Chiefs, the new Super Bowl favorites appear destined to hoist the trophy named after their originator Lamar Hunt. The Titans, however, have other plans and are riding the unparalleled momentum of defeating two of the very best teams in all of football. Let’s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on the Kansas City Chiefs. The consensus over/under total opened at 51 points. The point spread has held steady at -7.5. The over/under total has climbed to 52.5.
Current Line: Kansas City -7.5
O/U: 52.5
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Start Time: 3:05 PM EST, Sunday, January 19th
Last Meeting: Tennessee defeated Kansas City 35-32 — November 10, 2019

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Titans at Chiefs >>

Overview

The Tennessee Titans have achieved the improbable just by advancing to the AFC Championship game. First, they knocked off the defending champion New England Patriots in convincing fashion. In the divisional round, they shocked the world by defeating the team many thought was the best team in football, and the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl in the Baltimore Ravens. They are now only one win away from a Super Bowl appearance, but will have to go through the most complete team they have faced to date in the Kansas City Chiefs.

New England and Baltimore both had severe offensive limitations that were exposed by the strong all-around defense of the Tennessee Titans. Kansas City, with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have no such problem. They were both susceptible to elite talents on the ground. That is the area the Titans will be looking to attack this week, as the Chiefs are much improved in their secondary compared to what we saw from them last year.

Derrick Henry has literally carried the Titans to two upset wins, and if they are to pull off a miraculous third upset, Henry is going to have to have another monster day. He rushed for 188 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans Week 10 victory over the Chiefs and will need to have similar success in order to limit Patrick Mahomes’ time on the field and to tire out the Chiefs defense.

The Kansas City Chiefs are going to have their hands full with Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans rushing attack. Superstar defensive lineman Chris Jones missed the Divisional Round matchup against the Houston Texans and missed the Chief’s first practice of the week. If he is unable to suit up, the Chiefs will have a massive hole in the middle of the defense. The Chiefs will hope to get out to an early lead, but unlike the Patriots and the Ravens, they possess the elite level passing attack to dig themselves out of almost any hole. Kansas City are the new favorites to win the Super Bowl with Baltimore eliminated and will be facing a Titans team that has been given just a 12 percent chance to win it all. The Chiefs looked incredible last week and looked borderline unstoppable in the process. The Titans possess a better overall defensive team than the Texans (who have more star talent) to be sure, but when Mahomes and Andy Reid decide to put their foot on the gas, they summarily proved that there is no better team in football. Kansas City is just two wins away from becoming the 2020 Super Bowl Champions but will have to make sure that they do not look past the Titans the way some (erroneously or not erroneously) feel the Ravens did. This should be an interesting matchup.

Trends

Tennessee is 10-7 ATS on the season.
Tennessee is 7-3 ATS on the road this season.
Kansas City is 11-5-1 ATS on the season.
Kansas City is 5-3-1 ATS at home this season.
Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last five road contests.
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in their last nine contests.
Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in their last six road contests against teams with winning home records.
Tennessee is 7-1-1 ATS in their last eight contests against the AFC.
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in their last five contests following a win.
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against teams with winning records.
Kansas City is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Kansas City is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven contests.
Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six contests as a favorite.
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning records.
Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home contests.
Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four contests as a home favorite.
Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six contests following a win.
Over is 9-3 in Tennessee’s last 12 contests.
Over is 4-2 in Tennessee’s last six road contests.
Over is 6-3 in Tennessee’s last nine contests against the AFC.
Over is 5-3 in Tennessee’s last eight contests against teams with winning records.
Under is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven contests.
Over is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven home contests.
Over is 6-2 in Kansas City’s last eight contests against teams with winning records.
Over is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five home contests against teams with winning road records.

Prop Bets

Derrick Henry to get 100+ rushing yards (-111)
This prop can be found in the boosted odds section at PointsBet. This line here is especially favorable as the over/under total is 106.5 at -115, while the 100 rushing yard pick your total line sits at -200. Henry has averaged 196 rushing yards per game over his last three contests, clearing at least 182 rushing yards in each. Henry ran for 188 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs in Week 10, and should rather easily cross the 100 yard total for the seventh time in his last eight contests. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry against in the league at 4.83, and have allowed 105.3 rushing yards per game on the season. Lock this is in as a multi-unit play before PointsBet changes the odds.

Kansas City Chiefs team total over 30 points (-110)
This line is already listed at 31 points at other books in our consensus, so it is necessary to punch this one in at PointsBet before you continue reading. The consensus over/under for this contest continues to increase, suggesting that there has been and is still value in the over for the 30 point line at PointsBet. The Chiefs have scored 41 points per game over their last two contests, and appear primed to do so once again in a contest with a 52.5 over/under. Punch this in as a one-unit play at PointsBet.

Kansas City Chiefs second quarter -3 (-112)
The Chiefs should come alive in the second quarter and are also a great bet at -3 at FanDuel for the second quarter line. The juice is currently on the Chiefs, who are the number one second-quarter scoring team in the NFL this season at 12.1 points per game. The Titans, on the other hand, have scored just 5.1 points per second quarter on the season. Not many books offer second quarter lines, so punch this in as a multi-unit play as the juice for this prop should continue to rise leading up to kickoff, especially with only two games this weekend.

Bottom Line

The consensus point spread for this contest still sits at -7.5 on Kansas City, but via some line shopping via our live odds page, we can find a much more appealing -7 on the Chiefs at PointsBet. This gives us some room to work with as we can choose the more favorable line for our lean. The Chiefs are the obvious favorites to win this matchup straight up, but as we saw just last week when the Titans beat the Ravens, the playoffs are still the playoffs. The Titans beat the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10 in Tennessee but should have a much tougher time trying to out the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Kansas City proved that they are in their best form of the season with their record-breaking comeback against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, and are very hard to bet against even at a -7 spread. The consensus over/under for this contest opened at 51 points, a number that was tremendously appealing, but the 52.5 presents a significantly lower win probability, making the team total prop listed above look like the much better play.

With the Chiefs the prohibitive favorites to win this contest, the exercise here becomes determining whether potential game-flow lends itself to a Chiefs cover or a Titans cover. Line shading suggests the actual spread for this contest should -5.5 to -6.5 based on Vegas’ actual projections. Against New England and Baltimore, the Titans held a distinct advantage against the spread if they were able to score first. Against Kansas City, that may actually be what Chief’s bettors will be hoping for, as that will likely to more aggressive playcalling, and as a result an easy cover. If the Chiefs score first, they will be content to ‘win ugly’ in a contest that has a higher probability of ending as a one-score game, than it does for the Chiefs to win by the eight or more needed for a win against the spread.

The trends do not provide a definitive lean, but rather support action on either side. The Titans have won six straight against the spread when playing on the road against teams with winning home records. Kansas City is 4-0 against the spread in their last four contests against teams with winning records. If there were no -7 available, the +7.5 on the Titans would be the smarter play. With the push ‘opportunity’ -7 on the Chiefs presents, Kansas City becomes the play. Lock this one in as potential multi-unit action at PointsBet before the line here jumps back up to -7.5 or higher.

For those willing to eat a little extra juice for a more favorable line, the suggestion is to eat the 65 cents juice necessary to land what seems like an error alternative/’pick your spread’ line at PointsBet. -5.5 is listed at -162. However, if we go to the spread market tab we can find -4 at just -165. For reference, -4 in PointsBet’s very own pick your spread section is listed at -193. Line shopping confirms that this is currently the best alternative spread available, even if PointsBet is often a book to fade when it comes to alternative point spreads. Lock this one in as a multi-unit play if you are willing to eat the juice. Punch it in as a one-unit play if you would rather only get hit for 10 cents.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-110) or -4 (-165)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.

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