The blockbuster deal to send James Harden to the Nets rocked the entire NBA yesterday, and we’ll be dealing with its fallout for a while. We’ll get to see the Harden-less Rockets for the first time this evening, and the sudden change makes the Rockets’ trip to San Antonio an interesting game to bet on.

Here are the top NBA betting plays for Thursday, January 14, provided by BettingPros experts James Bisson, Raju Byfield, Isaiah Sirois, and Vaughn Dalzell (Main game odds courtesy BettingPros Consensus; lock and prop odds sites may vary):

Check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here >>

Betting Locks of the Day

Bisson: Pacers-Trail Blazers Over 229 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Trail Blazers games have been must-see TV so far this season (though that defense is almost certainly giving Portland fans ulcers). The Blazers average a whopping 235 total points per game, leading the Western Conference in scoring average (118.6) while ranking third-last in defense (116.4). The Pacers are a quietly efficient offensive team, and while the likely absence of new shooting guard Caris LeVert will hurt, there’s more than enough firepower here to make for another Pacific Northwest fireworks display.

Byfield: Hornets +8.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Insane. There is no reason for the Toronto Raptors to be listed as 8.5-point favorites when Gordon Hayward has been upgraded to probable. Toronto has been one of the worst teams in the league all season, and with no homecourt to help (they are playing in Tampa Bay this season), their struggles are set to continue. Toronto is 2-8; Charlotte is 6-6. Yes, Toronto had a chance to win each of their last two games with buzzer-beaters, but guess what, they missed them both. Toronto continues to be a fade, especially at ridiculous numbers like this.

Sirois: Pacers +3 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

This line is poorly set. The Blazers shouldn’t be three-point favorites over the Pacers on a good night, but they’re on a back-to-back, too. Yeah, sure, the Blazers rank third in points per game (118.6), putting them six spots and four points ahead of the Pacers (114.6). But Portland’s defense is dramatically worse — they give up the fifth-most points per game (116.4); the Pacers give up the 12th-fewest (110.1). My efficiency-based model calls for a pick’em and favors Portland by less than half of a point, and I expect the Pacers to keep things close against a Blazers team that just had to fight hard for a win over the Kings.

Dalzell: Hornets +8.5 (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Toronto has no business laying points with Charlotte right now. The Raptors are struggling in every area. This season, Toronto has only had three home games and scored 99, 100, and 114 points, winning once. The Hornets might have lost last night but had a four-game winning streak going before that. They already lost to Dallas earlier, so that loss was expected. Gordon Hayward is probable, and if he’s in, this is a definite grab.

Best Team Props of the Day

Bisson: Rockets Under 105.5 (-106 at FD Sportsbook)

We have no idea what the Houston offense will look like now that James Harden is Brooklyn-bound, but Thursday’s performance against San Antonio is almost guaranteed to be ugly. Harden’s departure coupled with John Wall’s injury absence will make it a whole lot easier to contain the Houston offense – and if Eric Gordon doesn’t play (he’s questionable as of Thursday afternoon), then it’s basically Christian Wood, 20-25 minutes of DeMarcus Cousins and a whole lot of problems. Take the under here with confidence.

Byfield: Spurs First Quarter Over 28.5 (-122 at FD Sportsbook)

Houston has allowed 30.8 first-quarter points per game on the season and will be facing a San Antonio team that hasn’t been much better in points allowed per first quarter. This should lead to a high scoring first quarter, but with the Rockets likely to be shorthanded, so we’ll eschew the first quarter combined total in favor of the Spurs’ total. San Antonio will be welcoming DeMar DeRozan back to a team that has found some additional scoring punch is the talented Lonnie Walker, and they should start the game hot against one of the league’s weaker defenses. While there is value here, it is not of the standout nature, so keep it to one unit as the Spurs average just 28 points per first quarter.

Sirois: Pacers Over 113.5 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)

I’ll double-down on Indiana with my favorite team prop. The Pacers will take advantage of a struggling Portland defense that ranks seventh-worst in defensive efficiency and gives up 116.4 points per game, the fifth-most. Not only are the Blazers allowing more points per game than this line, but the Pacers are also scoring more than it on a per-game basis (114.6)! While the Pacers won’t have Victor Oladipo (Caris LeVert’s status is up in the air, too), I’m still confident in Indiana’s offense against this defense. The Blazers allowed 126 just last night, after all.

Dalzell: Spurs Over 112.5 (-112 at FD Sportsbook)

The Spurs have a chance to really beat up on the Rockets tonight. Houston is terrible ATS, as they’ve gone 0-3-1 in their last four visits to San Antonio, and their first game without James Harden and John Wall doesn’t leave them in a great spot. San Antonio should make work of Houston tonight, and whether or not Christian Wood and company can keep it close, the Spurs should be able to score at least 110 points making this a realistic line for them.

Best Player Props of the Day

Bisson: Fred VanVleet Over 19.5 Points (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

It has been a frustrating start to the season for most of the Raptors players – and VanVleet is near the top of that list. He’s averaging a respectable 20.9 points per game, but he posted 13 or fewer in four games (and to no one’s surprise, Toronto has gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in those games). But here’s how VanVleet responded the first three times in the games that immediately followed those duds: 27 points vs. the Spurs, 25 points vs. the Knicks, and 34 points vs. the Kings. In other words, he’s been a bounce-back stud – and with a Thursday point prop lower than his season scoring average, that’s reason enough for me to hammer the over.

Byfield: Lonnie Walker over TBD Points (TBD at FD Sportsbook)

The player props for this contest have yet to be posted, but very few players present as much value as Lonnie Walker does in point props right now. Walker has been on fire lately, and he is finally playing up to his immense potential. The scoring touch is legit and should help push Walker IV to being a 15-plus point per game scorer going forward. Against a Rockets team that was already allowing opponents to shoot .495 from the field, Lonnie should cook once again. I do not expect another 24-plus point outing, but neither will the books. With DeMar DeRozan set to rejoin the lineup, the number should be posted under 16.5 at FanDuel. The sweet spot for a smash play is around 14.5, 15.5 is a potential multi-unit play, but at 16.5, one unit should be our max. Look for this prop to get posted later this afternoon when FanDuel has a better indication of which players will be active for the Rockets and the Spurs.

Sirois: Pascal Siakam Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110 at FD Sportsbook)

Siakam has turned things around lately, but the narrative surrounding him hasn’t changed much due to Toronto’s losing record. Let’s exploit that, shall we? The power forward has hit this over in his last four games, so while his season average (8.8) could be better, his recent four-game average (10.5) suggests that this line should’ve been set one rebound higher. He’ll play a Hornets team that lost to the Mavericks last night, too, so Siakam and the Raptors have a rest advantage here. It helps that the Hornets allow 11.4 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards.

Dalzell: Christian Wood Over TBD Points (TBD at FD Sportsbook)

Houston has won this season, he averages 21.0 points and 14.0 rebounds. When he plays 30 or more minutes in 2020-21, Wood’s totals are 22.0 points and 8.0 rebounds, and in 2019-20, 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. Without John Wall, it’s all about Christian Wood tonight. He’s liable to go for 25 and 12-plus tonight.

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