2025 The Great American Getaway 400: NASCAR at Pocono Odds, Picks & Predictions
Your home track hits different. Just ask Daniel Suarez, who came from the rear to win last week’s Mexico City Xfinity Series race.
Though I’ll be behind pit wall and not the wheel, the feeling is similar for me this weekend as a media member once again covering the sole NASCAR Pocono race date in my home state of Pennsylvania.
Perhaps it’s the mountain air or the 50,000+ rowdy fans, but “The Tricky Triangle” is special. The nearby lake communities and resorts are flooded with race fans once a year, ready to converge and watch all three top series burn it down at one of the last independent tracks on the NASCAR schedule.
From the tailgate beers we bombed in the parking lot during my college days, to all the betting-focused stories I’ve been able to tell since entering the industry, it just means more in Long Pond, Pa.
Keep an eye on both the BettingPros and In-Between Media YouTube channels this weekend for at-track updates and additional plays. In the meantime, consider getting invested with my best bets for The Great American Getaway 400 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing in the Keystone State.
2025 The Great American Getaway 400: NASCAR at Pocono Odds, Picks & Predictions
Denny Hamlin Top 5 (-120 via ESPN BET) | 4u
Even in his age-44 season, nobody has mastered the unique Pocono Raceway like seven-time winner Denny Hamlin. If you count where he crossed the line in 2022 and not his post-race disqualification, Hamlin has the top Pocono Next-Gen average finish (1.7) and ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings in that span.
Finishing runner-up to Ryan Blaney last season, the No. 11 was the class of the field, leading 31 laps, ranking first in average running position (5.0) and second in laps run inside the top 15 (95.0%).
The only thing that dinged him and knocked him down to second in this week’s IBT Betting Model projections was his 32nd-place finish at the comparison track of Indianapolis last year. However, he still had the third-best average running position on the day (7.7).
The recent form - sitting second in total speed rankings at conventional tracks this season - is promising. With the third-best all-time average starting position (7.5) and best in the Next-Gen era (4.3), I expect the No. 11 car to unload fast on Saturday. Therefore, you’ll want to be invested early with this fair-priced -120 T5 ticket at ESPN BET and the 5-1 outright at FanDuel.
Bubba Wallace (-115 via ESPN BET) vs. Ross Chastain | 3u
H2H matchups have once again been my most profitable betting market to date, and where I place the majority of my bankroll in most races. The biggest discrepancy in the projections offered this week is Bubba Wallace at pick’em odds against Ross Chastain.
Wallace is seventh in the projections with an IBT Grade of 73%, while “The Melon Man” is 24th at 38%. That is largely due to Wallace’s fourth-best Pocono Next-Gen average finish (9.7), compared to Chastain’s 29th-best average finish of 27.0. While Wallace holds just a slight edge in speed - 13th in total speed rankings versus Chastain’s 17th in that span - he’s flashed late-race speed while the No. 1 car falls off or finds trouble.
Last year in particular, Chastain found trouble early and ended up limping it home for a P36 finish with an average running position of 31.2. It wasn’t a standout run for Wallace either, as he had just a 20.3 average running position. Still, the long-run speed flashed again, and he crawled his way to a T10 finish.
While it’s tough to fade the Busch Light Apple-schemed No. 1 car, Wallace is 3-0 against Chastain at Pocono Raceway in the Next-Gen era. He also bested him last year at the comp track of Indianapolis, where he had the fourth-best average running position (9.7) and finished P5.
This matchup should have had Wallace favored somewhat heavily. I intend on making the books pay up for the oversight regarding the 23XI Racing driver.
Xfinity: Sheldon Creed (-120 via BetRivers) vs. Brandon Jones | 4u
With a limited pre-practice and qualifying card for the Cup Series, let’s move to Saturday’s Xfinity Series race for my next best bet. Sheldon Creed is rightfully matched up against Connor Zilisch at most books. However, BetRivers pivoted from the norm and instead offered him at -120 against Brandon Jones.
There must be something in the Pennsylvania water that does it for the driver of the No. 00 car; Creed has a 6.7 average finish at Pocono across three career Xfinity Series starts. Jones has an average finish of 12.3 in that same span and tends to get caught up in something, despite usually unloading fast.
Haas-Factory Team, formerly Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR), also had arguably the best equipment at big flat tracks last season. Cole Custer won Pocono in this car last year, while his then-teammate Riley Herbst finished fourth in 2023. They also finished first and second at the comp track of Indianapolis the following week, combining to lead 77 of 100 laps.
Creed is the more consistent driver at “The Tricky Triangle” and could have one of the fastest cars in the field. He is 2-1 against Jones at Pocono in his career and 9-6 against him this season. Hammer down.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card
Denny Hamlin Outright (+500 via FanDuel) | 1u
Hamlin Outright + Xfinity: Creed vs. Jones Parlay (+912 via BetRivers) | .5u
Other Explore the Pocono Mountains 250 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Austin Hill Outright (+850 via FanDuel) | .8u
Taylor Gray (-112 via BetRivers) vs. Brandon Jones | 2u
MillerTech Battery 200 (Truck Series) Bets:
Grant Enfinger Top 5 (+210 via ESPN BET) | 1u
Chandler Smith (-120 via DraftKings) vs. Kaden Honeycutt | 3.5u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”